Friday, April 11, 2014


Days after quick count of parliament election in Indonesia, high officials of the parties rush to approach parties in order to set a coalition between one party with one or more parties with similar platform, vision and mission.

From 12 parties in the election, only 10 eligible enter parliament house or goverment bodies.The last 2 parties got only under 3,5% votes, so not eligible join the Parliament house and Ministry.

From  ideology point of view we may categorized the parties into two :
5 (five) Nationalist parties and 4 (four) Moslem based parties.
From percentage point of view we categorized into two groups, 3 parties are above 10% and the rest are under 10%.

The big tree are National parties no other way then to approach Moslem based parties to strenghtenth their position due to the mayority of the voters in the country are Moslem.

The1st, PDIP parties who got 19,23 % votes approached Nasdem, a new Nationalist party with  6,71 % and moderate Moslem party, PKB with 9,13 % votes.    
The 2nd, Golkar party who got 15,02 % votes will approach Hanura party, head by General army Wiranto, ex Golkar party head, who got 5,11 %. Who Moslem party to be join, not yet clear.
The 3rd, Gerindra party who got 11,76 % approached Demokrat party, the ruling party with 9,43 %. These two parties are army General. Head of Moslem based party, PPP with 6,68 % previously approached by Gerindra to be a partner in coalition. But most of PPP party official refused to be partner with Gerindra party, since the head of the party not get approval from the Board of the party beforehand.

The top tree parties who will set up 3 (tree) coalitions in the Ministry and in the Parliament house. Beside, 2 other coalitions might be set up by some mediocre parties and Moslem based parties as well. Moslem based parties succeded to formed a solid coalition in 1999 general election.
One of Moslem based party, PKS, Partai Keadilan Sejahtera with 6,98 % votes plan to head of one coalition. If the plan fail, they preffer to be Opposition party. The party mostly belong to young generation.

As soon as Committee publish formal final of the election early next month, every coalition will proclaim the candidate for a couple of president and Vice President for the next term 5 years period.

Many analysis said that the 1st coalition is the best despite of doubfull of Jokowi position as a puppet of Megawaty Soekarnoputri, the head of PDIP party. Megawati took power in 1999, a year after economy crisis hitted Asia including Indonesia. Many politician value her uncessfull run the country.
But poor citizen praise PDIP party to hold on pure Consitution "Pancasila" and they promised not repeat wrong doing again in the next 5 years period, who the President isn't Megawaty but Joko Widodo.

The 2nd coalition is Golkar party and Hanura party. These two parties doubt to execute their promises to the country. The head of Golkar party, a Conglomerate accused take advantage of Government budget over his Corporate mistake to fllood and drawn down Sidoarjo region under mud in order to seek gas and oil underneath the soil.
Hanura party, his partner in a coalition also run by a Conglomerate, one of 19 Indonesia richest businessman in Forbes list and questionable his aim to run for Vice President, to make him more wealth in the World while the citizen were in poor.

The 3rd coalition is Gerindra party, head by General Prabowo who suspicious of his rough character including kidnapped activists when his father in law, President Soeharto in power.
Demokrat party, the ruling party who will join the coalition headed by President Soesilo Bambang Yudhoyono valued his capability to control his party, since many high officials of Demokrat party jailed for corruption in many mega projects, including the former head, treasurer, secretary and a Minister, closed to the President.
Soesilo Bambang Yudhoyono family will be save if Demokrat join Gerinrda take power at least for next 5 years or maybe 10 years.
Another party possibly joint this 3rd coalition is PAN, Partai Amanat National. Moslem based party, head by Hatta Rajasa, Economic coordinator Minister, who is the brother in law of the President Soesilo Bambang Yudhoyono.
Recently based on pollings of many agencies in the country, put Jokowidodo of PDIP party in the top, then Aburizal Bakrie, Golkar party head and General Prabowo Subiyanto, Gerindra in the third position.
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